# Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade

**Published:** October 6, 2026
**Author:** Matthias Bastian
**Source:** The Decoder
**Language:** en-US
**HTML:** https://aiqazaqstan.com/en/articles/microsoft-publishes-nobel-economist-s-bearish-ai-forecast-of-just-1-5-gd

Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu. He predicts about 1.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced. Bigger models won't move the needle, he argues. What's missing are practical apps that change how work…

> From the original source: **The Decoder**
> [Read full article at The Decoder](https://the-decoder.com/microsoft-publishes-nobel-economists-bearish-ai-forecast-of-just-1-5-gdp-growth-over-a-decade/)

**Tags:** #Microsoft

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