Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment,…

Jingjie Ning, Xueqi Li, Yibo Kong, Dongting Li·arXiv — cs.AI

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Key Takeaways

01.Research agents explain planned experiments
02.We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context
03.Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment,…

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