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Renaissance өңдеуі уақыт бойынша қайшы келмейтін тарифтерге сәйкес келеді - Кристоф Бойм, Андрей А. Левченко, Вэй Сян

Біз "Вебельз" жүйесінің (1987 жыл) динамикалық нұсқасындағы оңтайлы тарифтерді фирмаларды құрудағы құрылыс кестесінен кешіктіріп талдаймыз. Мұндай жағдайда сауданы қорғау шетелдiк сауда әрiптесi есебiнен өзiнiң фирмаларын құруды кеңейтуге деген ұмтылыспен айқындалады. Фирмалар құруға уақыт керек болғанда, болашақта қорғанудан түсетін пайда артады, ал тұтыну бағаларының өсуі түріндегі шығындар дереу туындайды. Белгілі бір параметрлер кезінде толық жұмыс күніне қатысты өзіне міндеттеме ала алатын саясатты әзірлеуші

2026 ж. 7 қараша · Дереккөз: NBER new working papers

We analyze optimal tariffs in a dynamic version of the Venables (1987) framework with a time-to-build lag in firm creation. In this environment, trade protection is driven by the desire to increase firm creation at home at the expense of the foreign trade partner. When firm creation takes time, the benefits of protection accrue in the future, whereas the costs in the form of higher consumer prices occur immediately. Under certain parameterizations, a policymaker that can commit to a full time path of tariffs leaves trade unrestricted at date 0, and announces high tariffs coming on at a pre-specified future period. But there is a time inconsistency: the policymaker's short-run incentive is not to impose contemporaneous tariffs due to the adverse effect on prices. Thus, lack of commitment to future tariffs can preserve free(er) trade and derail a manufacturing renaissance. Acknowledgements and Disclosures The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research or the University of Texas at Austin. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research or the University of Texas at Austin. Citation and Citation Data Copy Citation Christoph Boehm, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Wei Xiang, "Manufacturing Renaissance Meets Time-Inconsistent Tariffs," NBER Working Paper 35976 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35976. Copy to Clipboard Download Citation MARC RIS BibTeΧ Download Citation Data In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals—the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, the Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's, and the Bulletin on Entrepreneurship—as well as research spotlights, lectures, and panel videos. Presenters: Melissa Dell & Ashesh Rambachan Presenter: Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

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