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Coordinated R&D Programs and the Creation of New Industries -- by Daniel P. Gross, Maria P. Roche

Large, mission-oriented R&D efforts sometimes generate substantial technological advances, but their commercial impacts vary. This paper uses one such effort—the U.S. World War II radar program—to explore how the outputs of such programs may contribute to later commercial development. Using archival records together with data on firm entry, patenting, and technical labor flows, we reconstruct the organization and outputs of wartime radar R&D, document the rapid postwar growth of a civilian indus

7 November 2026 · Source: NBER new working papers

Large, mission-oriented R&D efforts sometimes generate substantial technological advances, but their commercial impacts vary. This paper uses one such effort—the U.S. World War II radar program—to explore how the outputs of such programs may contribute to later commercial development. Using archival records together with data on firm entry, patenting, and technical labor flows, we reconstruct the organization and outputs of wartime radar R&D, document the rapid postwar growth of a civilian industry, and evaluate which outputs were used in subsequent commercial activity. Codified knowledge (in publications and patents) diffused broadly, embodied knowledge (trained personnel) diffused more locally, and the component-system industrial architecture of the wartime program was mirrored in firms' postwar commercial positions. The evidence points to specific channels through which coordinated technology development programs can give shape to emerging high-tech industries. Acknowledgements and Disclosures This paper is evolved from an earlier working paper first drafted in April 2023. We thank Bhaven Sampat for his early collaboration and reviewers for extensive feedback that has significantly improved the paper. We also thank JP Eggers, Stine Grodal, Josh Krieger, Mahka Moeen, and Tiona Zuzul, and discussants Nel Dutt, Brian Silverman, and Steve Usselman for feedback, and audiences at numerous seminars and conferences for their comments. We also thank Deborah Douglas at the MIT Museum and Jeremy Kepner at Lincoln Laboratory for helpful discussions, and Umar Ali, Riley Choe, Innessa Colaiacovo, Jack Edmondson, and Richie Zitomer for research assistance. We are grateful to Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, the HBS Division of Research and Faculty Development, and the NBER Innovation Policy grant for financial support. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1951470. All errors are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. This paper is evolved from an earlier working paper first drafted in April 2023. We thank Bhaven Sampat for his early collaboration and reviewers for extensive feedback that has significantly improved the paper. We also thank JP Eggers, Stine Grodal, Josh Krieger, Mahka Moeen, and Tiona Zuzul, and discussants Nel Dutt, Brian Silverman, and Steve Usselman for feedback, and audiences at numerous seminars and conferences for their comments. We also thank Deborah Douglas at the MIT Museum and Jeremy Kepner at Lincoln Laboratory for helpful discussions, and Umar Ali, Riley Choe, Innessa Colaiacovo, Jack Edmondson, and Richie Zitomer for research assistance. We are grateful to Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, the HBS Division of Research and Faculty Development, and the NBER Innovation Policy grant for financial support. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1951470. All errors are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Citation and Citation Data Copy Citation Daniel P. Gross and Maria P. Roche, "Coordinated R&D Programs and the Creation of New Industries," NBER Working Paper 35978 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35978. Copy to Clipboard Download Citation MARC RIS BibTeΧ Download Citation Data In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals—the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Health, the Bulletin on the Economics of Alzheimer's, and the Bulletin on Entrepreneurship—as well as research spotlights, lectures, and panel videos. Presenters: Melissa Dell & Ashesh Rambachan Presenter: Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

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